In last year's outlook, SPE foresaw global solar capacity reaching 450GW in 2019 in the most likely medium scenario, but its new report thinks it could reach 516GW by then, before rising to 613GW a year later.

Accumulated solar capacity worldwide was 229.2GW last year, when 50.6GW was added, slightly revised from the 50.1GW SPE originally published as the 2015 figure earlier this year.

This year, the global market is well on its way to breaking through the 60GW mark, again in a medium scenario, which would translate into a 22% annual growth rate.

Growth this year "will largely depend on China, which installed an impressive 7.1GW... in the first quarter", the report says.

Uncertainty prevails about Japan, solar's other stronghold. Although feed-in tariffs (FITs) for utility-scale solar were cut in April, the tariff level is still very attractive compared with most other solar markets. But as the government plans to replace FITs with tenders, developers might rush to install as much as they can, as soon as possible.

What exactly will happen in the US also isn't clear. After the investment tax credit extension late last year, it remains to be seen whether developers push to complete late-stage projects or take their time.

SPE thinks India's 12GW target for 2016 seems very ambitious, and expects 5-6GW in installations.

After last year's uptick, demand in Europe is predicted to slow again this year, mostly due to the termination of support for utility-scale projects in the UK, but growth is expected to return in coming years.

For next year, SPE sees global growth moderating following the end of the attractive incentive programme in the UK and Japan's potential move to tenders. There is also a possibility of China controlling growth due to transmission bottlenecks.

Still, Asia's dominance is expected to prevail, but its global market share is expected to slide from more than 60% now to about half in 2020.

China will continue to speed ahead in the medium term and from 2016-20 could add more than 100GW, albeit in a high scenario.

China's strength could also be seen in 2015 in its biggest PV module maker, Trina, shipping more than 5GW for the first time in one year, and IT equipment provider Huawei overtaking Germany's SMA Solar as the world's largest inverter maker, according to SPE.

Installations in China and the US are expected to enjoy a growth rate of 25% or more, with China adding 87GW in a medium scenario in 2016-20 and the US putting on 59.4GW.

SPE envisages India's annual growth averaging 63% in that period, adding 52.4GW.

It also sees spectacular growth rates in Brazil, with a 149% annual growth rate and 6.4GW to be added by 2020; and in Egypt, which it expects to increase by 214% a year to 4.8GW by 2020.