Some 44% of the capacity underway is located in California, with 19% in North Carolina, the number two state. Texas is third, at 7%.

If left unchanged, the ITC will drop to 10% for commercially owned solar projects at the start of 2017, down from 30% at present. The utility-scale market is expected to suffer the biggest downturn. An extension of the current ITC “looks unlikely”, IHS says.

In