ANALYSIS: Brazil wind can't take 10

The grey clouds hovering over Brazilian-based turbine makers seem to be vanishing.

Impsa turbines have passed Brazil's local-content rules

Milton Leal in São Paulo

Argentina's Impsa and Spanish group Gamesa recently got the thumbs-up from the Brazilian development bank BNDES, signifying that their machines have been approved for the preferential financing offered by the bank to developers.

Two other foreign manufacturers are believed to be about to be added to the list.

French wind group Alstom secured a 1.2GW framework deal with fast-growing local developer Renova and is well placed in Brazil, and GE has announced a big order with Bioenergy in a $900m deal to provide 377 of its 1.7MW turbines.

But look deeper, and things aren't so rosy. According to the BNDES website, Indian turbine maker Suzlon and Spain's Acciona have not even complied with the previous, less rigorous, local-content rules yet.

Danish group Vestas, the Germans Siemens and Wobben (Enercon) and Brazil's Weg are also analysing the pros and cons of staying in an uncertain market.

Brazil needs 6GW of new capacity every year. More than 30GW of hydroelectric plants will be developed over the next 15 years, filling a third of the country's needs.

Thermal plants are back, with government encouragement. Coal and natural gas will be an important part of the energy matrix. Some people believe another third of baseload generation source is necessary to keep the system's balance.

In that scenario, wind, solar, biomass and small hydro would have to share 2GW of capacity per year.

Examine those figures, and the question is: can ten turbine-makers survive in that market environment? I'm afraid not.