A global ‘big five’ of wind turbine OEMs – Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, GE, Goldwind and Envision – will control two-thirds of the global market as soon as 2020 as industry consolidation reaches its conclusion, said analysts at Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

The three western and two Chinese turbine-makers will enjoy a combined market share of 68% by the end of next year, up from 47% five years ago, said the research group’s latest report, Global wind turbine OEM market share forecasts H1 2019.

A four-year process of consolidation among western OEMs will be replicated in the huge Chinese market in the years to come, predicts Wood Mackenzie, with a plethora of smaller OEMs there finding the going tough in competitive auctions.

That will see local big-hitters Goldwind and Envision make progress at home even as they make international gains in other Asian markets, Latin America and Africa, allowing them to join the trio of western majors in the dominant global five.

Wood Mackenzie expects Vestas to keep its global market leadership in 2019, followed by Siemens Gamesa and GE – with the three tipped to capture more than 50% of the market this year.

As for the other OEMs in the global market, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables principal analyst, Shashi Barla, said: “European pioneers Enercon and Nordex swung back into action with increased order activity over the last 12 months, paving the way for a strong performance in 2020/21 outside of core European markets with cost-optimised platforms.

“However, both may face an uphill battle when it comes to competing with their larger western peers.”

Siemens Gamesa and MHI Vestas will dominate the global offshore wind sector with a combined 60% share by 2023, Wood Mackenzie reckons.

It also notes the “serious intentions” of GE in Chinese offshore wind evidenced by plans to set up a manufacturing facility in Jieyang, Guangdong province.