With an end to support and renewable energy targets in sight, Norway’s onshore wind industry hopes cheap production from excellent resources – and its potential to help underpin a ‘fully-electrified society’ – will keep development humming through the 2020s.

The Scandinavian nation’s wind sector has been buoyant of late. A record 350MW new capacity is forecast to come online this year, and roughly the same again is slated for 2018, including the 255MW Roan Vindpark – opening volley of national utility Statkraft’s 1GW Fosen mega-development.

The Norwegian Wind Energy Association (Norwea) expects between 1GW and 1.4GW of new wind to reach financial close by the end of 2021, and for the country to end the current decade with about 3.5GW of onshore capacity yielding an average 12TWh annually.

After the end of 2021, however, things change dramatically. Norway will then leave the green certificate mechanism it operates jointly with Sweden, with no replacement support scheme planned and no political intention to set new renewable energy goals.

Norway’s hydro-dominated electricity supply is already effectively all-renewable, with a surplus of 114% in electricity consumption forecast by 2020. The nation has also already surpassed its commitment under the EU’s directives to reach a share of renewable energy in total consumption of 67.5% by 2020.

That will leave new onshore wind developments competing on price alone in a market that already has more cheap-to-produce hydropower than it needs.

Despite this, the industry is confident it has a future role.

Michael Meyer, head of asset ownership for wind power at Statkraft told Recharge: “After the certificate system is discontinued, further investments will depend on the development of the power price, but we’re somewhat optimistic simply based on the fact that Norwegian wind resources are among the best in Europe.”

Norway’s domestic demand isn’t the only variable in play, Willoch said. “In a future with increasing amounts of variable capacity on the continent, the market could come to value the green, on-demand electricity from Norwegian hydro very much indeed.

“As recently as 2011 it was touch and go, and our hydro reserves were critically low. As we’re increasing our export capacity to Germany and the UK, while setting ambitious targets for electrifying our society and expanding our electricity-powered heavy industry, we need be able to build new [renewable] capacity to ensure that our hydro reservoirs can deliver when needed [for] increasingly lucrative export markets.”

Two new 1.4GW interconnections, one to Germany (Nordlink) and another to the UK (North Sea Link), are scheduled for completion by 2021.

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has started to map wind power’s post-2020 expansion with the development of a national framework to underpin new onshore projects into the next decade.

"Our vision is that Norway becomes the world's first fully-electrified society by 2050"

Oluf Ulseth, Energy Norway

Its main goal is to identify sites well suited to cost-efficient development based around wind resources, existing and planned network capacity, and environmental and social considerations, easing future licensing and planning applications.

Multiple stakeholders have consulted on the project so far, including Norwegian transmission operator Statnett, and Norwea itself.

Daniel Willoch, policy advisor at Norwea told Recharge: “The framework should deliver the necessary signals to the wind power industry that there is political will to encourage continued wind power build out after the green certificate market, as well as provide a coordinating signal to the government bodies concerned.

“This way the most socio-economically beneficial projects gain licensing more efficiently.”

Willoch added: “In a future where direct subsidies for renewable energy will be winding down across the continent, it’s important to ensure that we are delivering the cheapest new electricity to the market…on the best possible market-based conditions.”

While the framework won’t establish a political or industry target, it is likely to result in a quantification of Norway’s capacity potential.

Willoch said: “Our position is that the framework should make it possible to build [enough to produce] at least 30TWh of onshore wind power between 2021 and 2030. This shouldn’t be considered a goal, but a number to make sure there will be a sufficient number of projects available when additional electricity is needed.”

Oluf Ulseth, CEO of national power industry organisation Energy Norway, told Recharge the country’s wider economic trajectory may mean it needs all the clean electricity it can get.

“Our vision is that Norway becomes the world's first fully-electrified society by 2050. This reduces emissions and brings new demand for power in the long term, and opportunities for growth.”

Notable is Norway’s accelerating electrification of transportation. With electric vehicles nearly 40% of newly registered passenger vehicles in 2016, Norway boasts the highest market penetration of EVs per capita in the world.

Ulseth also points to demand from new corporate data centres, attracted to Norway by its cool climate and reliable clean power supply.

Ulseth said medium-term forecasting of demand for new wind power in Norway has to be approached with caution, given the nation’s surplus.

But he continued: “In the longer term, it’s an open question what proportion of new demand is met through new wind or new hydropower.

“We have exceptional resources for both and onshore wind is virtually cost-competitive with new built hydro already – currently perhaps even more attractive given the high taxes on hydro.”

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