Armin Laschet, the state premier of Germany’s most populous state, North-Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), has won the inner-party election of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), putting him in the pole position to succeed the Chancellor who, after four terms in office, has decided against running in the general elections in September. –

Laschet, a centrist and the most ‘Merkelian’ candidate on Saturday beat the more right-wing populist Friedrich Merz and the progressive environmentalist Norbert Röttgen.

Laschet has previously said he is in favour of a coalition with the opposition Green Party after the elections as Merkel’s current pact with the Social Democrats (SPD) has become stale. In theory, that could bode well for climate action and the expansion of renewables in Europe’s largest economy as the Greens are pushing for a much faster energy transition.

Given Germany's massive influence on EU policies and the economic block's Green Deal, who becomes the country's next Chancellor is vital for progressive climate policies.

Merkel in recent years has taken a middle road, trying the near-impossible to reconcile stricter climate policies to reach the targets of the Paris climate agreement with the needs of Germany's powerful car and heavy industries and the mining sector in her country and in Eastern Europe.

Laschet if anything may slow down rather than speed up the energy transition and climate policies.

During the digital party conference ahead of the CDU’s online vote, he placed the accent on this coal- and steel industry roots, giving an emotional speech and showing the ID tag his father had worn during his time as a coal miner, and declaring said it is his personal 'talisman' and sign of reliability.

Mining in his veins

Strong links to heavy industry during his coalition in NRW with the neo-liberal Free Democrats (FDP) have prompted Laschet to make a series of policy choices vocally abhorred by the Greens.

Laschet has been a staunch defender of utility RWE in its insistence on clearing the Hambach Forest near Cologne to make room for yet more lignite open-pit mining. Climate activists hold him partly accountable for the death of a photographer when the police tried to clear the forest from protesters in 2018.

He is also is seen as responsible for pushing through a harmful ’distance rule‘ for onshore wind farms, under pressure from the FDP.

“The CDU has opted for a leader who makes little of climate protection,” Green Party managing director Michael Kellner tweeted, while Friday’s for Future activists recalled that Laschet had put his weight behind ultimately successful pressure from the coal sector to impede an earlier date for Germany’s coal exit than the 2035-2038 period.

Germany's renewable energy federation (BEE) was somewhat more welcoming, stressing the CDU now must take the opportunity to link climate protection and industrial policy, and push through a "complete and rapid transition from coal to sun and wind".

Coalition with the FDP?

Unlike the defeated Röttgen, Laschet doesn’t rule out a future cooperation with the FDP in a possible three-way coalition with the Greens.

Currently, a coalition only with the FDP would, however, not have a majority according to opinion polls, while one with the Greens would render the most stable majority. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), in recent surveys met some 35-37% of voter intentions, followed by the Greens with some 20%, and the SPD with around 15%. The FDP only stands at 5-7% in the polls.

While Laschet now is the front-runner to lead the CDU party, he doesn’t automatically get the nomination for chancellor candidate. Both he and the immensely popular state premier of Bavaria, the CSU’s Markus Söder, have said they want to decide upon a candidate after crucial state elections in March.

State elections

The CDU is facing uphill struggles against popular state premiers in the key state of Baden-Württemberg, which currently is ruled by the Greens (in a coalition with the CDU), and in the also western state of Rhineland-Palatinate that is ruled by the SPD (in a coalition with the FDP and the Greens).

If the CDU loses both of the upcoming state elections, Söder may push aside Laschet to become the CDU/CSU’s candidate himself. Unbeholden to the coal or steel industry - which are still formidable political forces in NRW but not in Bavaria - Söder may make more concessions to the Greens in a possible coalition on climate action issues. Bavaria, however, still has an even stricter distance rule against wind farms in place against NRW, tarnishing Söder’s green credentials as well.

Climate change is likely to become a key election topic this year, although the economic outfall of the coronavirus crisis may overshadow everything else.

Wind

What will coal-sympathiser Laschet mean for Germany's energy transition – and Europe's?