Vestas' onshore wind lead narrows as Siemens Gamesa 'blows rivals away' at sea: BNEF

Vestas saw its leadership in global onshore wind turbine additions narrow last year, while Siemens Gamesa “blew away the competition” offshore, said research group BloombergNEF in its annual review of the market.

The Danish OEM giant remained clear onshore market leader with 9.6GW fully commissioned in 2019, representing an 18% share of the 53.2GW added globally on land, BNEF analysts said on Tuesday.

That represents a slippage from the 10GW commissioned in 2018 when it enjoyed a 22% share onshore according to the same analysts. Last year was a record one in terms of deliveries for Vestas at almost 13GW, with BNEF's parameter of full project commissioning apparently meaning some of the Danish group's megawatts may not have made it onto the numbers.

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What is clear is some of Vestas’ biggest competitors added significant extra volumes in 2019, notably GE Renewable Energy, which saw 7GW commissioned onshore last year, up from 5GW in 2018, as it consolidated leadership of its home US market ahead of its Danish rival.

China’s Goldwind remained number-two onshore, and a boom year for Chinese installations pushed several of its other OEMs up the global rankings.

Siemens Gamesa was a narrow second to Vestas in BNEF’s overall wind market rankings once offshore installations were added, 8.8GW to the Danes’ 9.6GW, following a stellar year for the OEM in European waters that “blew its competition away”, said BNEF.

Siemens Gamesa's 3.3GW commissioned included 1.2GW at a single project thanks to Orsted’s Hornsea 1, the world’s largest offshore wind farm. Vestas doesn’t get capacity from its MHI Vestas offshore turbine JV under BNEF’s methodology.

Offshore wind grew its share of the total 60.7GW 2019 wind market by four percentage points to 12% after the world commissioned 7.5GW at sea.

BNEF, whose annual rankings and wider research are among the most closely-studied in the industry, expects overall wind installations to rise 24% to 75GW this year.

Oliver Metcalfe, wind analyst at BNEF and lead author of the 2019 Global Wind Turbine Market Shares report, said: “2020 is set to be another strong year for installations in China and the US, as developers rush to build before subsidies lapse, but uncertainty post-2020 could expose some bigger players unless they diversify to new growth markets.”

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Tom Harries, head of wind research at BNEF, said: “This bumper year for offshore wind is just the start. If you look past a likely blip in 2020, installations are set to accelerate, breaking the 10GW-a-year barrier in 2023. This growth outlook has led to intense competition between turbine makers.

Harries added: “At the moment, the advantage lies with the manufacturer selling the most powerful turbine. Industrialising the production of a slightly smaller turbine through higher volumes could lower costs and prices. The opportunities for turbine makers to offset lower prices with long-term maintenance contracts is less clear than it is in onshore wind.”