The leading three western wind turbine OEMs – Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and GE – by 2028 are expected to boost their control in the global market to 60%, or 48GW per year, up from 47% and 32GW in 2019, analyst Wood Mackenzie said.
As the market share consolidation by global wind turbine manufacturers is set to intensify, the top five global turbine OEMs by 2028 are seen controlling three quarters of the sector.
“Vestas, SGRE and GE will draw upon strategic relationships with major asset owners to execute large-scale projects while also investing in new products and technologies. Vestas, the clear leader in this space, will see its market share elevated to an average of 20% over the next five years,” Wood Mackenzie’s principal analyst Shashi Barla is quoted as saying in a release.
Siemens Gamesa by the end of this year will become the second turbine OEM after Vestas to surpass 100GW in cumulative installed capacity world-wide, he added.
“Vestas reinforces its leading position by being the first turbine OEM to install more than 10GW of annual capacity during 2019. Vestas, SGRE, GE and Goldwind will each install around 10GW in 2020 due to surge in US and China market activity.”
Goldwind’s leading position in China, combined with large projects in Australia and Canada, will also see the company take the global number two spot for the very first time in 2020, Barla reckons.
Regional players will face an uphill battle to compete, though, as can be seen from the troubles at Germany-based Senvion and India’s Suzlon, the analyst said.
While peers such as Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and yesterday also Enercon have all announced job cuts in Germany and Northern Europe to counter the effects of a collapsing German wind power market and price pressures, Senvion earlier this year had to file for insolvency and has offloaded its European service business and a blade plant in Portugal to Siemens Gamesa.
Wood Mackenzie stressed that the outlook isn't all bad for regional players, however.
Nordex and Enercon are expected to strengthen their presence with increasing investments in new wind turbine technologies. The former is expected to install a record 5.5GW of average annual capacity in 2020 and 2021, a substantial increase of 40% when compared with 2019, the analyst said.
In turbines for wind at sea, Wood Mackenzie expects Siemens Gamesa to continue as undisputed market leader, with more than 15GW in backlogged orders.
Number two offshore wind turbine maker MHI Vestas thanks to a booming offshore market is likely to also make it into the top ten of the world’s biggest wind OEMs by 2023, and by 2027-2028, the Japanese-Danish joint venture could even be part of the top five, the analyst expects.
GE with 4.8GW in combined orders signed this year in the US and the UK, has also made “an enormous splash,” Barla thinks.
The analyst also pointed out the growth of Chinese offshore wind players.
"MingYang has become rising star in the Chinese offshore sector, with more than 4.5GW of orders signed in the past year."
“Ten of the top 15 turbine OEMs in 2020 will be Chinese, capitalising on a domestic demand surge.