Siemens Gamesa will overtake Vestas to become the world’s leading wind turbine manufacturer by 2025 and retain that position until the end of the decade, according to Wood Mackenzie.

New research from the analyst also shows that Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and GE — the three leading turbine makers — will increase their combined global market share throughout the 2020s — from 43% last year to 60% by 2029.

“Global operational scale, onshore and offshore presence, large balance sheets, closer proximity to the largest asset owners and financial strength will prove to be advantageous for leading Western turbine OEMs and help to consolidate global market share outside of China,” WoodMac said in a statement.

Siemens Gamesa will increase its lead in the offshore segment, pushing the OEM to become the market leader in terms of total installed capacity (onshore and offshore combined), according to principal analyst Shashi Barla.

Also, Germany’s Nordex has “emerged as a robust fourth contender in global markets excluding China”, said WoodMac.

Chinese manufacturers will continue to struggle to sell their turbines outside of their home market in the 2020s, with Goldwind seeing limited success in South Africa and Australia, the analyst's figures show.

At the same time, Western OEMs will struggle in the Chinese market throughout the decade, although they are expected to capture 10% of the market share this year, due to the short-term surge relating to the phase out of the country’s feed-in tariffs.

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Siemens Gamesa to overtake Vestas as world's largest turbine maker by 2025, says WoodMac