Poland as part of a second phase of offshore wind expansion plans to tender off 12GW of additional capacity in the Baltic Sea, Anna Łukaszewska-Trzeciakowska, undersecretary of state for climate and environment, said at the WindEurope 2023 conference.

“We increase our ambition for the future phase and increase potential gigawatts,” the undersecretary said at a panel during the ministerial session in Copenhagen.

The country will hold "four competitive support auctions" in its second phase of wind power expansion at sea that will push its cumulated capacity to 18GW, she said.

Łukaszewska-Trzeciakowska added two auctions of 4GW each and another two of 2GW each are slated to be held in 2025, 2027, 2029, and 2031.

“The [offshore wind] potential of Poland is huge in the Baltic Sea, and we are proud to be a leader and we would like to keep that position.”

Warsaw has already granted contract for difference (CfD) support for a first wave of projects with a combined capacity of 5.9GW, among others to consortia of Orsted with PGE, Northland Power with PKN Orlen, Polenergia and Equinor, and RWE.

The government originally had plans to hold CfD tenders for 2.5GW each in 2025 and 2027, but in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine and the need to get independent of Russian energy supplies has been boosting its offshore wind ambition.

Poland's future leadership in Baltic Sea offshore wind could be rivalled by Sweden, where several utilities are racing to obtain a final central government permit to build multi-gigawatt wind farms at sea, among them OX2 and the investment unit of Ikea parent Ingka, Orsted, Vattenfall, and Skyborn Renewables.

Currently, only Germany and Denmark have a gigascale offshore wind capacity in the Baltic Sea that is up and running.

33GW offshore potential by 2040

The Polish wind industry represented by the Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA) welcomed the higher offshore wind ambition, but could imagine even more.

"As an industry, we are very glad that the ministry of climate has announced a new scenario for the energy policy until 2040, giving full capacity of 18GW by 2040," PWEA president Janusz Gajowiecki told Recharge.

"This is a real change in comparison to the old approach of the government to the energy mix. Renewables will amount to almost 70% [of the power mix] in 2030."

"That is very important for all of Europe as the country so far had relied on coal and gas. Coal in the next 15 years will disappear to very low numbers, like 0.7GW in 2040 [for lignite] and of around 9.5GW [for] black coal."

Russia's war against Ukraine "just on the border of Poland" has definitely accelerated the Polish government's efforts to change the energy mix to domestic sources such as onshore and offshore wind, he added.

PWEA in a report published last year, however, pointed out that even more would possible, and estimated an offshore wind potential in Poland of 33GW by 2040.