The world is expected to add between 165 and 195GW in new offshore wind capacity by 2030, led by growth in China and other Asian countries from the middle of the next decade on, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) said.
In its Global Offshore Wind Report, the lobbying group forecasts tenders seeing double-digit growth even in a ‘business as usual’ scenario based on current policies with the potential to accelerate to 15-20GW in worldwide additions after 2025.
An upside scenario counts with additional potential such as the advancement of floating technology, increased cost competitiveness and so greater volume in mature markets, as well as the opening up of new offshore wind regions.
“Many new countries are preparing to join the offshore wind revolution, while floating wind represents a game-changing technological development that can add even more volumes in the years to come,” Karin Ohlenforst, director of market intelligence at GWEC, said.
The upside scenario is based on estimates, Ohlenforst told Recharge, and could thus still change.
"The time-frame to 2030 is over 10 years out and we are continuously monitoring how the upside potential evolves."
With 23GW of wind power installed at sea so far worldwide, under the business as usual scenario, cumulated global offshore wind capacity would reach 188GW by 2030, compared to 223GW under the upside scenario.
“The industry is continuing to make significant strides on cost-competitiveness, with an average LCOE of $50/MWh being within reach,” said Alastair Dutton, chair of the global offshore wind taskforce at GWEC.
“This achievement increases the attractiveness of offshore wind in mature markets where a number of governments are discussing long-term climate targets that, if they are to be achieved, must seriously consider the contribution large-scale offshore wind can make.
“New offshore markets represent significant potential and if industry and governments can work together, as we have seen recently in the case of Taiwan, we can build the necessary policy frameworks at greater speed to ensure growth can be achieved sooner than later,” Dutton added.