Goldwind expects to deliver 15GW of wind turbines this year that could be the highest figure in the world, helped by a surging level of offshore business, said the Chinese OEM giant’s chief engineer.

Endi Zhai said Goldwind is set to ship 2GW of offshore machines this year and next as Chinese developers race to install wind projects at sea before the end of 2021 to meet expiring government support deadlines.

“In 2020 and 2021 we are going to deliver 2GW offshore, mainly in China but also … a bit in Vietnam and other countries,” Zhai told a Recharge Digital Roundtable on global offshore wind markets.

When added to Goldwind’s onshore business in 2020 “we are going to deliver 15GW of turbines in China and globally. Probably that will be the largest in the world,” said the Goldwind official.

For some years the leader in its domestic market, Goldwind is the biggest Chinese wind turbine group vying for leadership globally in competition with international rivals such as Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and GE Renewable Energy.

The performance of the OEMs can be measured in various ways that take into account deliveries, installation and various stages of project commissioning.

Under 2019 rankings by research group BloombergNEF, based on full project commissioning, Goldwind was global number three with 8.25GW installed, including 610MW offshore, behind leader Vestas at 9.6GW and second-placed Siemens Gamesa at 8.79GW.

In terms of deliveries, Vestas reported a record 12.8GW for 2019. The Denmark-based pure-play onshore giant in February said it expected an “even busier” 2020 with a best-ever 17.9GW of orders booked last year, although that prediction was made before the coronavirus pandemic’s widespread disruption to global industries.

Red-hot market

Zhai’s bullish forecast reflects an installation dash onshore and at sea as Chinese developers race to complete projects ahead of expiring government subsidy deadlines.

The 2GW delivery figure for 2020 and 2021 would be triple the 680MW Zhai said Goldwind delivered offshore last year.

The Goldwind executive said 21GW of Chinese offshore development is chasing grid connection by the end of 2021 – but Zhai added that in his view only around 13GW of that would make it due to pressures on the supply chain in areas such as vessels and component imports from Europe affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

This year and next the market is just too hot.

After 2022, Zhai told the Recharge roundtable he expects the Chinese market “will be back to normal, maybe 3-4GW a year, that’s probably the right speed for Chinese offshore wind – right now this year and next year [are] just too hot”.

But he said the industry is pinning its hopes on China’s provinces to step in and make up at least some of the shortfall left by central government’s removal of subsidies, to help it over the last few years before it becomes competitive with coal.

“We believe we can compete with coal in electricity prices by 2025 – that’s why right now the whole industry in China is trying to persuade the provincial governments to continue to subsidise.”

Like other Chinese OEMs Goldwind has put a major push behind scaling-up its offshore turbine range. The OEM’s 8MW prototype became China’s most powerful sea-based turbine when it was installed at a project of China Three Gorges in May.

China is tipped by some analysts to be on course to become the largest offshore wind market globally as soon as 2025.

Wind

Goldwind could be global number-one in turbine deliveries this year: official