An “aggressive” Indian market and offshore deployment are among the growth drivers cited by research group Wood Mackenzie as it forecast global turbine capacity to more than double by the end of the decade.
Worldwide additions will average 77GW annually in the 2020-29 period, representing a 112% growth of installed capacity, said Wood Mackenzie.
While the sector will hit some obstacles from the coronavirus crisis in 2020 and 2021, the firm’s analysts forecast massive additions around the world as the decade unfolds. Key expectations include:
- 250GW brought online in China over the decade, with 26GW in 2020 despite coronavirus delays
- India to account for 51% of the 107GW added in the rest of Asia as the “country works to comply with aggressive targets”, according to Luke Lewandowski, Wood Mackenzie’s research director.
- Asia ex-China to install 18GW of offshore wind, 35% of total new capacity across the decade.
- Annual additions to average more than 4GW in Latin America, driven by factors such as unregulated market growth in Brazil, Chile’s switch from coal and Colombian tenders.
- Europe to add 225GW, driven by EU green targets. Increasing offshore deployment amid land constraints to account for 43% of new additions in Northern Europe.
- Middle East and Africa to see “astonishing” 10-year CAGR of 23%. Nearly 60% of the 48GW forecast for the sub-region concentrated in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.
- “State-led” US offshore wind deployment to total 23.3GW across the 10 years.
The Wood Mackenzie forecast follows 2019 wind installations it reckoned totalled 62GW, a 23% increase on 2018 and the second-highest annual growth since 2015’s 63GW.