Harnessing just 10% of the identified global offshore wind resource would generate more electricity than the current demand worldwide, according to the latest calculations by the World Bank.

The bank, as part of an ongoing sector-specific development programme, put the technical potential globally at more than 71TW, of which some 16TW was found off so-called emerging market nations.

“Just 1% of the world’s offshore wind resource could provide 10% of our electricity demand,” Mark Leybourne, the project’s leader at the World Bank,” said in a LinkedIn post.

“Currently, we are only benefitting from a tiny fraction of that potential, but this is quickly changing,” he continued. “By 2030, it’s expected that over 230GW of offshore wind will be operating globally; a seven-fold increase from the 32GW today.

“New, emerging markets will contribute to this increasing capacity and offshore wind can play a significant role in their future economic growth.”

The size of the supporting role that will be played by floating wind was laid bare by the World Bank numbers, which point to over 70% of the global offshore wind resource being in waters too deep for conventional bottom-fixed turbines.

“We identified 115 countries with technically extractable offshore wind resources and, for each country, estimated the total technical potential for fixed and floating wind technologies,” said Leybourne.

“We estimate the total global technical potential of offshore wind as 71 TW; 29% of which is found in fixed offshore wind conditions and at least double that, around 71%, is in deeper water, suited to floating wind.”

The World Bank’s bullish calculus is out reached by the “more optimistic” view of the International Energy Agency, which in a 2019 report suggested offshore wind would be able generate more than 420,000TWh per year - more than 18-times the world’s electricity demand, noted Leybourne.

“Regardless of the assumptions made, it is clear that the potential for offshore wind is vast and, as the world’s electricity demand is growing rapidly, offshore wind is a resource that should be considered by any country with resource potential.”

According to the World Bank’s modellling, over 80% of the global technical wind potential is streaming off the coasts of 20 countries – but only eight of these have operating offshore developments.

“These figures highlight the magnitude of the vast, underutilised energy potential in our waters,” said Leybourne. “Offshore wind is starting to feature in the energy policies of an increasing number of countries as it is widely accepted that this technology will play an important role in the energy transition and meeting the targets set in the Paris Agreement.

“But with only 32GW operational worldwide, we have a long way to go.”

A recent report from an industry action group led by developers Orsted and Equinor found that a building out toward having some 1.4TW running around the world by 2050 would deliver en route 10% of the carbon emission reduction needed to reach the Paris Agreement target of keeping global heating to within 2℃ of pre-industrial levels.

“To achieve this vision, we will need to see continued acceleration of installations in established markets and the creation and growth of new markets, particularly across Latin America, Africa and Asia,” said Leybourne.

“Given the long lead time of offshore wind market and project development, commitments and targets are needed now – as we have recently seen in the UK, EU and US – to set policy direction and provide positive signals to mobilise this industry.”

Wind

Global power demand could be met 'with 10% of total offshore wind' resource: World Bank