Europe is expected to build as much as 7GW floating wind plant off its shores this decades it is gearing up to meet its longer-term decarbonisation goals, the head of advocacy body WindEurope, Giles Dickson, told delegates at the Floating Offshore Wind Turbines (FOWT) conference.

This ambitious campaign would have to start with getting 330MW online in the next two years, he said, pointing to the possibility of the sector having 150GW turning in deepwater by mid-century.

“If Europe is going to meet its goals for offshore wind - remember, [the EU] wants offshore wind to [supply] 25% of its electricity by 2050 – if we are going to meet those goals, we need to move fast on floating,” Dickson told a panel on government policies.

The continent is currently the fast-emerging sector’s global market-leader, with the 30MW Hywind Scotland array off the UK and Portugal’s 24MW Windfloat Atlantic array both now up and running.

After the construction of four more pilot projects in France of around 25MW each, the 88MW Hywind Tampen array in Norway, Scotland’s 50MW Kincardine project, as well as further prototype turbines in Spain, Sweden and Norway, it is forecast that 330MW of floating wind capacity will be operational in Europe by 2022, Dickson said.

Adding up all the commitments on floating wind that various European governments made in their national energy and climate plans to the EU, WindEurope sees that capacity swelling to 7GW by 2030, which would produce power at a price of €40-60/MWh ($47-71MWh).

The calculation includes 3GW in floating capacity from the Utsira site in Norway, and another 1.5GW if half of the country’s southern North Sea site will be developed with floating technology as well.

The industry group also assumes that France’s various offshore wind projects will add up to 2.3GW by 2030, and that the UK will have 1GW operating by then, mainly off Scotland and Wales. A first large-scale project in Spain, probably off the Canary Islands, would come on top, while Portugal is expected to deliver 300MW.

The floating wind capacity in Europe could become even bigger by 2030, in case Norway were to decide for more floating at its southern North Sea site. Also, Spain is preparing an offshore wind strategy that includes 3GW in wind at sea by 2030, most of that floating, Dickson said.

As Europe is gearing up to become a carbon neutral continent by 2050, the EU plans to have 450GW of offshore wind power operational by then. Of that, some 100-150GW should be floating, WindEurope reckons, after analysing potential sea areas in the Northern seas, the Atlantic and the Mediterranean.

Recent market analysis from UK-based international low carbon advisory body the Carbon Trust calculates over 70GW of floating wind power plant turning by 2040 – a near-1,000-fold expansion of the current global fleet – as international supply chains take shape to support development of commercial-scale projects around the world.

The forecast – the most bullish to-date in the industry, with analysts to this point varying widely in their 2030 estimations of the sector’s growth, from 6-15GW – sees up to 10.7GW of floating wind by 2030, before the market mushrooms, with a total project value approaching £200bn ($250bn) by the end of the next decade.

Wind

Europe to reach 7GW of floating wind by 2030 en route to meet net-zero targets: WindEurope chief