The Dutch cabinet has approved an ‘offshore wind energy road map 2030’ that aims at an even more rapid expansion of wind at sea of 7GW between 2024 and 2030 to be tendered off in annual auctions from 2021 on.

The new installations will push the Netherlands' cumulated offshore wind capacity from an expected 4.5GW at the end of 2023 to 11.5GW in 2030, the Dutch economics and climate ministry said in a release, adding that the road map aims at providing developers with planning security.

That may give the Netherlands the greatest offshore wind density in Europe. The small country facing the North Sea now has just over 17 million inhabitants. Neighbouring Germany, by comparison, has 83 million people, but currently only operates a slightly higher offshore wind target for 2030 or 15GW.

While the Dutch offshore expansion now is the most ambitious in Europe, what comes down to annual additions of 1GW in the seven years up to 2030 is still less than the up to 2GW the Netherlands wind energy association (NWEA) had lobbied for.

Even more offshore wind capacity after 2030 only makes sense if non-electronic energy usage, such as in heating and transport (currently 80% of the country’s energy demand), will also transition to renewables, the economics ministry stresses.

It adds that this is the subject of ongoing discussions in the wake of society-wide round tables for an updated climate agreement, which also include issues such as converting wind power into hydrogen for cars.

With the additional offshore capacity, wind power in the Netherlands by 2030 will reach some 40% of (today’s) electricity consumption.

Investments for the 2024-30 offshore build-up are seen at some €15-20bn ($18.7-24.9bn), the Dutch economics ministry estimates, and will create 10,000 jobs.

More zero subsidy?

The Netherlands again became the pacesetter for offshore wind in Europe by tendering off the 700-750MW Hollandse Kust South 1&2 sites in the world’s first process with no support on offer that was won by the Chinook unit of Vattenfall’s Dutch subsidiary Nuon earlier this month.

Dutch economics minister Eric Wiebes in a letter to parliament seen by Recharge, however, stressed that there is “never a guarantee” that upcoming tenders can also be carried out without support.

“Cost factors and market conditions that now are favourable can change,” Wiebes said, adding that he is preparing an amendment to the country’s legislation for offshore wind to be able to react faster to changing costs and market conditions.

The government plans to tender off the Hollandse Kust South 3&4 as well as the Hollandse Kust North sites this year and next. Both have around 700MW in capacity.

Wind

Dutch to add 7GW in offshore wind capacity from 2024-2030