China grid-connected 15GW of wind power in 2017 – a drop in new turbine installations for the second year running and a figure dwarfed by solar – but an easing of curtailment and a looming end to subsidies is expected to drive additions back up in the closing years of the decade.

Data released by National Energy Administration (NEA) shows the extra 15GW brought China’s cumulative capacity to 163.7GW, a 10.5% year-on-year increase. The total includes onshore and offshore wind, but the agency does not offer a breakdown between the two.

That was down from 2016 and 2015, when China recorded 19.3 GW and a spectacular 34GW of new installation figures respectively.

And wind’s 2017 growth in China was overshadowed by solar, which ended the year with 130.2GW after a 53GW, 68.7% spurt that means it has already beaten its 2020 government-set goal of 110GW.

Wind continued to enlarge its share of the power market in 2017, however, taking an all-time high 9.2% of the country’s total electricity capacity

NEA’s review shows that total electricity consumption in China rose 6.5% to 6,300TWh in 2017. Given the robust demand, power production of all generation sources including coal, hydro, nuclear and renewables increased steadily.

Wind and solar took the lead in output growth late year. Wind generation jumped 26.3% to 305.7 TWh in 2016, but was again outshone by solar, which soared 75.4% in 2017.

One factor aiding renewables growth appears to be China’s nascent power exchange market.

Last year wind and solar power producers secured bilateral trading deals involving some 37TWh of generation. Enabled by trans-provincial power transmission, “[the power exchange deals] help to release the pressure of renewable curtailment [in] the northern region,” said a spokesperson for China’s National Development and Reform Commission.

With 2017 concluded, the industry expects renewed momentum out to 2020, when China wants to have more than 201GW of wind in place.

That expectation is backed by the improved situation regarding wind curtailment. In 2017, wind turbines on average operated for 1,948 hours, a production time increase of 203 hours, leading to a 5.2% decrease in the curtailment rate.

Four “red-alert” provinces out of six in total managed to cut wind curtailment records to below 20%.

Due to the positive changes, NEA last year approved new projects to start in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia – two provinces tagged as “red-alert” regions where new-builds were forbidden to ease chronic curtailment rates.

With the increase in utilisation, industry experts believe that NEA will first lift the “red alert” bans on four provinces in 2018, a major factor to boost new installations.

According to industry analysis, there is currently some 114.6GW of onshore wind capacity in the pipeline that is previously approved but yet to break ground.

A large portion of these projects will start before 2020 when the “zero-subsidy wind” scenario is slated to begin. Last year, NEA set 2020 as the start of the timeline for onshore wind units to lose subsidies, meaning that the current wind tariff of 0.47-0.6 yuan per kilowatt hour ($0.074-0.094/kWh) will drop to 0.4-0.57 yuan/kWh by then.

Driven by the policy, wind developers in China are likely to rush to kick off new builds before the no-subsidy deadline, pushing up installation figures in the coming three years.

The country’s fledgling offshore wind sector is also building momentum rapidly, with many expecting it will beat its 5GW capacity target for 2020.

Wind

Curtailment eases as China adds 15GW of wind in 2017