Southern Norway offers the potential for development of significant, subsidy-free onshore wind capacity, according to a study by national TSO Statnett.

The south is well placed to host “a large amount of new wind power” without overburdening the local grid, said Statnett.

Statnett said its 2025 forecasts of a €40/MWh ($46.20/MWh) Nordic power price and wind LCOE as low €25-30/MWh “initially gives a significant profitability for wind power without subsidies”, although it cautions that other factors such as level of capacity in the wider region and demand trends make it uncertain exactly what level of build-out would be viable.

The TSO produced its report as part of a wide-ranging study of onshore wind potential ordered by Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE).

Despite their better wind resources, Norway’s northern regions are less well-suited to onshore development “without significantly higher consumer growth and possibly more network capacity”.

Norway had 1.16GW of onshore wind installed at the end of 2017, according to WindEurope figures. That is likely to grow to 3.5GW by the end of the current decade as developers race to take advantage of the final few years of support on offer.

At the end of 2021 Norway will leave the green certificate scheme it jointly operates with Sweden, leaving wind development to compete on price alone in a power system that is already well-served with renewable power from the country’s vast hydro-fleet.

National power utility Statkraft has pledged to expand its onshore wind fleet from about 1GW to 6GW by 2025. Although much of that growth will come abroad, Statkraft is building the 1GW, Vestas-equipped Fosen project in central Norway that will come online in 2020.

Norway recently opened the prospect of offshore wind development off its coasts, including siting turbines to provide clean power to its oil and gas platforms.