With several large-scale offshore wind projects now advancing off Maryland, and Massachusetts just days from announcing the winners of its first offshore tender, analysts and industry operators agree that offshore wind is about to take off in the US. But consensus beyond there is harder to come by.

As the market begins to take shape, analysts and supply-chain operators are studying the tea leaves for signs of how much capacity the US will install in the coming decades – and coming up with quite different views on the path ahead.