The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global renewables growth remains off track to meet the 70-85% of global power supplies by 2050 urged in Monday's landmark report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, told Recharge that there would be significant growth in renewables by 2050, but the current pace new capacity was being added “was still short of the level suggested by the IPCC – although it’s going in the right direction”.

Birol said the IEA expects global greenhouse gas emissions from energy to again increase in 2018 for the second year in a row. “Unfortunately, I am announcing this number on the very day the IPCC tells us we need to urgently see a big decline in emissions.”

The IPCC claimed the 70-85% figure is needed to avoid the devastating impacts of a two-degrees increase in global warming.

Birol pointed out that 30 years ago the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix was 81%. “Over the last 30 years we have seen a big rise in renewables which have got cheaper, we have adopted new technologies, electric cars, grown energy efficiency, and had plenty of government support. Yet after these 30 years of change the 81% share of fossil fuels in the mix remains the same.”

“This strong penetration of renewables – wind, solar, bioenergy and hydropower – alone will not be enough. In the battle against climate change we cannot only deal with renewables, we have to adopt energy efficiency measures, and urgent fossil-fuel technologies such as carbon capture and storage.”

In its new Renewables 2018 market analysis, the Paris-based IEA forecasts that renewable sources will provide 30% of the world’s total power generation by 2023. However, the agency points out electricity is just one piece of the pie, and that five years from now renewables will still only account for 12.4% of the world’s total energy demand.

Birol said that the low penetration of renewables in transportation and heat in homes and industry – where most of the world’s energy is consumed – is a major “blind spot” which needs to be addressed.

Bioenergy from liquid biofuels and biogas will lead growth in renewable energy consumption to 2023, due to its rising use in the heating and transport sectors, according to the IEA.

The agency says overall, renewable energy will continue to grow to 2023, accounting for 40% of energy consumption growth as countries cut their greenhouse gas emissions to try and keep global warming in check.

"Modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy field."

Globally, solar photovoltaic capacity is forecast to expand by almost 600GW to 1TW by 2023 – more than all other renewable energy technologies combined.

Wind will be the second-largest contributor to renewable capacity growth, growing by 60%, but hydropower will remain the largest renewable electricity source by 2023.

While growth in solar and wind power is set to continue in the electricity sector, bioenergy will remain the largest source of renewable energy, the IEA claimed in its report.

“Modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy field,” said Birol. “Its share in the world’s total renewables consumption is about 50% today, in other words as much as hydro, wind, solar and all other renewables combined.”

China will lead global growth in renewable energy due to policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from all sectors and lessen harmful air pollution and will surpass the EU as the largest consumer of renewable energy by 2023, said the report said.

Of the world’s largest energy consumers, Brazil will have the highest share of renewables by far – almost 45% of total final energy consumption in 2023, driven by a significant contribution of bioenergy and hydropower.

Transition

World off-track for IPCC renewables target, says IEA chief