Renewables are accelerating their “historic” growth rates and will displace coal as the biggest global power source by 2040, said BP.
The global oil giant expects renewables, including wind and solar but excluding large-hydro, to have a 30% share of the global power sector by 2040, under the 2019 version of its Global Energy Outlook.
That’s a sharp increase on its forecast of just a year ago when it predicted a 25% share by 2040. That growth would take renewables past coal as the world’s largest source of power, said BP.
Wind is expected to grow by a factor of five and solar by 10, “aided by continuing pronounced falls in the costs of wind and solar power as they move down their learning curves”.
The oil group identified emerging markets in Asia and Africa, with their growing populations and energy demand, as the main drivers of renewables, which are already “growing faster than any fuel in history”.
In developed economies, the rate of retirement of existing power stations is key to the ability of renewables to grab share of generation, it added.