UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ‘green industrial revolution’ plan could be “out of kilter with reality” and raises a string of unanswered questions, from big energy policy and regulatory holes to specifics about how the gas and power grids will cope, industry commentators warned.

Johnson’s ’10-point plan’ was released amid much fanfare in a late-night launch this week, with most attention focused on an accelerated 2030 deadline to end sales of new petrol vehicles.

The plan, which included a restating of the Conservatives’ year-old election manifesto promise to quadruple offshore wind output to 40GW, also targets rapid development of 5GW of hydrogen production capacity and a continuing role for nuclear.

No White Paper

But policy experts pointed out that the UK government still hasn’t published a long-awaited Energy White Paper outlining the details of its priorities in a more substantial statement of energy policy and legislative intent.

Andrew Stirling, professor of science & technology policy at the University of Sussex, said the white paper should have been published first, reflecting the fact that there hasn’t been one in more than twelve years of “extraordinary change” in the energy sector.

“To do otherwise looks like an effort to undermine scrutiny – reflecting a fear in government that its actions are out of kilter with the realities,” Stirling said.

There is a need for honesty about nuclear power.

"However many points the prime minister may want to include in his plan, there remain some intense challenges if the government wishes to be seen as serious either on UK energy needs or net-zero strategies,” he said, warning that there was a danger of the government trying to “do everything” rather than focus on proven solutions.

“A rich plurality of renewable and efficiency options means [net zero] can be achieved without any single option having an automatic place. To spend money on slower or more costly options will divert support from those that are more effective. The plan needs to be clear about this.

“There is a need for honesty about nuclear power,” Stirling warned. “No matter how the issues are looked at, the present intensity of UK government support for this option is massively out of proportion to the rather shaky economic and environmental case.”

Gas grid to hydrogen?

With a huge role foreseen for hydrogen, the gas distribution network was added to power grids as a potential focus for concern.

Recharge reported earlier how the 40GW wind at sea target has raised fears about the ability of the offshore grid system to cope.

“Despite the virtues of hydrogen, the grid is going to need to undergo an immensely complicated digital upgrade before we’re ready to reap its benefits,” said Rachel Eyres, business unit director energy & utilities at consultancy Expleo.

“As well as the obvious logistical challenges with replacing gas boilers inside people’s homes with heat pumps, there are also challenges with introducing hydrogen into the gas network.”

Caroline May, EMEA head of environment at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright, described Johnson’s plan as “largely a statement of intent by the government” in the run up to next year’s United Nations COP26 climate conference in Glasgow.

“A major concern is the ability of the regulatory framework to ensure these ambitions can be delivered, drive behavioural change and support investor confidence,” citing environmental legislation as an example.

May warned that “much remains to be done on the delivery side” and to secure the funding of projects that will be needed to achieve the government’s ambitions – Johnson hopes to mobilise £12bn ($16bn) of government investment, and up to £36bn from private sources.

“Any new trade agreements post-Brexit will also need to deliver on the net-zero agenda if the government is to achieve its 10-point plan.”

Transition

'Out of kilter with reality?' Boris Johnson's $16bn UK green masterplan questioned