India will miss its ambitious 175GW renewables target for 2022, according to research group Wood Mackenzie.

Even with the benefits of further cost reductions in wind and solar, Wood Mackenzie expects 76% of the 2022 goal to be fulfilled citing “a myriad of challenges” facing the country’s renewables sector – a level that would still be a “noteworthy achievement”.

The obstacles include knocks to investor confidence from recent auction cancellations, pressure on the finances of state distribution companies, and duties on equipment imports, said Wood Mackenzie solar analyst Rishab Shrestha.

The forecast comes a few months after power minister RK Singh said India would “overshoot” the 2022 target – currently including 60GW of wind and 100GW of solar – leading to speculation that it could set a raised 225GW goal.

India’s total wind and solar base has doubled to 61GW from 2014 levels, thanks to auction-driven costs declines that will continue for the next five years, said Wood Mackenzie.

Shrestha said: “Improving grid flexibility through storage and flexible power generation will be extremely crucial in achieving high levels of renewable penetration. Economic competitiveness, technological maturity, and financially healthy off-takers will provide a solid base for renewable capacity growth to cater to electricity demand growth.”

In the longer term to 2040, non-hydro renewables will balloon to 384GW contributing 20% of power generation, the research group believes. That will be driven by the addition of renewables beyond the onshore wind and PV sectors, including offshore wind and floating solar.

India is currently engaged in its first expressions of interest (EOI) process for offshore wind, which it hopes will contribute 5GW to the 2022 wind power tally – an objective some in the sector have called optimistic given the lack of infrastructure in the country.

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India to miss 175GW 2022 renewables goal: Wood Mackenzie