Global solar power capacity will expand by 125% over the next decade with China, the US, and India expected to bring online nearly two-thirds of the net solar growth likely to be added by the end of 2029, according to a study by Fitch Solutions.
Solar will account for around 6% of total global electricity generation by 2029, up from an estimated 2.7% share at the end of 2019, said the analysts in an outlook for global solar power.
Fitch forecasts that a net total of 734GW of solar power will be added worldwide by the end of 2029, with installed solar capacity increasing from 587.5GW in 2019 to 1.32TW over ten years.
China is expected to remain the single largest market for solar growth, as the country is set to add more than 285.7GW of solar capacity over the ten year forecast period, accounting for just under 40% of total global growth.
The US and India will also see significant solar generation growth over the next decade with 110.4GW and 84.4GW of capacity additions respectively, said Fitch.
In Europe, Spain, France, Germany and Italy will be the region’s strongest solar performers – with each market estimated to add between 12GW and 24GW of new capacity over the next decade.
“Decarbonisation efforts, growing interest in corporate energy procurements, and declining costs will result in continued growth despite the reduction in government support mechanisms throughout the region,” the analysts said.
Fitch said solar growth in emerging markets will also support its positive global outlook.
“We forecast 36 markets will add more than 1GW of solar capacity over the coming decade, with 48 markets expected to add over 500MW, and 72 markets expected to add at least 100MW. We therefore expect the total number of markets with solar capacities over 1GW will rise from 29 to 85 by the end of our forecast period in 2029.”
The analysts highlight “Colombia as a net growth outperformer among developing markets, where we foresee the country’s total solar capacity rising from 332MW at the end of 2019 to just under 1.5GW in 2029. We note significant upside risk in Colombia’s market as more than 12GW of potential solar projects have been registered with the government since early 2019, and have designated the country as our ‘market to watch’ this quarter.”
Outside of Latin America, Fitch highlight Malaysia and Turkey as two additional emerging markets where it expects to see strong growth in solar capacity over the coming decade.
“Recent advances in solar technology will increase efficiency and further reduce the total system costs of commercial and industrial, and utility-scale solar projects, supporting our bullish outlook on global solar growth.
“Over the past six months, five major solar manufacturers have announced new module designs that exceed 500W capacity, including JinkoSolar, LONGi, JA Solar, Trina Solar, and Risen Energy. These more powerful 500W models will allow developers to use fewer modules in order to hit their desired capacity targets.”
