Floating wind power could steam forward to account for as much as 25% of the total offshore plant capacity installed off US shores by 2035 fueled by a massive build-out in Pacific waters as barriers to development of the regional sector are removed by the new Biden administration, according to a scenario scoping report by Aegir Insights.
Research by the analyst group points to the long-simmering potential for floating arrays off California and the wider west coast as being set to “take off this decade”, with Hawaii shaping up to follow, and the east coast and Great Lakes plays “maturing later” leveraged by explosive interim growth in conventional bottom-fixed offshore wind off New York.
Though the size of the pipeline of projects to be installed off the US could range from as large as 11GW to as small as 6GW by 2035, says Aegir – which has excluded the Gulf of Mexico, generally seen as a ‘farther horizon’ ambition in the country’s energy transition – if even if the ‘base’ case of 9GW is achieved, the regional floating fleet would account for around a quarter of the 25-34GW of offshore wind plant foreseen turning by this date.
“The commercial scale floating offshore wind build-out in US waters is assumed to take off before the end of this decade,” sid Scott Urquhart, Aegir Insights’ CEO.
“I think getting floating wind front and center in front the US investment community will contribute to normalising it. Besides a few exceptions, the European bottom-fixed sector build-out did not have large involvement of American funds making direct investments. US floating gives them an entry opportunity as well – either in projects, supply chain or related infrastructure,” he told Recharge.
“We already distinctly notice more contacts coming in from US private equity and institutional investors asking ‘how can we use floating to get in this game’.”
In Aegir’s ‘high’ and ‘mid’ case scenarios for the US market, all deepwater development plays would reach commercial scale before 2035, while in a ‘low’ case, the Great Lakes would be limited to only 400MW by this date, pulling down overall fleet size to a low-end figure.
Floating wind’s levelised cost of energy (LCOE) is set to decline significantly in the US, with Aegir predicting a range from €76-€94/MWh ($92-$114/MWh) by the end of the decade, driven by California, where the LCOE could plummet by two-thirds by 2040, from around €160/MWh in 2025 to below €50/MWh.
“As California matures to commercial scale, floating wind cost levels will approach that of European markets, [where Aegir forecasts a downward trajectory from €71/MWh in 2025 €43/MWh by the end of the next decade] but with offset due to being deep water floating sites,” said Urquhart.
Ratcheting down LCOE will be helped by the arrival of larger-still wind turbine models that the current 12-15MW models, with 16MW expected before 2030 and 20MW designs being ready by 2040.
“The relatively low LCOE in California is dependent on if adequate solutions are developed for deepwater floating, that is, over 800 metres’ depth,” said Urquhart.
“Apart from Northern California, West Coast sites are generally having higher LCOE than the east coast and the Great Lakes sites, which is mainly driven by immature supply chain and deep waters, leading to increased anchoring costs.”
In January, US President Joe Biden announced executive orders recommitting the country the Paris climate agreement – reversing Donald Trump’s earlier diktat – and set out among his administration’s energy transition targets that of “doubling offshore wind by 2030” to reach 41GW installed.
“I think the previous administration brought uncertainty just as the train was trying to leave the station,” said Urquhart. “In four years’ time that train will be running at a good clip, and it will be dangerous to step in front of it.
“The US sector will already have a supply chain mobilised, US investors vested in the industry and new projects probably not needing much subsidy…a tough combination for a future administration to slow down.”
The US currently has one floating wind demonstrator moving toward installation, the Aqua Ventus project being run out of the University of Maine back by Mitsubishi-owned Diamond Offshore Wind and developer RWE Renewables.
Floating wind markets are on the verge of explosive growth globally with analysts expecting a near-1,000-fold expansion of the current embryonic fleet as international supply chains take shape to support development of commercial-scale projects around the world, including in key markets in Europe’s northern seas, the US Pacific and off Asia Pacific, where DNV GL believe half of the 260GW of worldwide floating wind forecast will be turning by 2050.
