Poland’s government plans to “liberalise” a damaging distance rule from 2016 that has brought new wind power developments on land to a near-standstill, shutting down the largest onshore wind energy market in Eastern Europe.

No draft for an amendment of the distance rule act has been presented yet, but according to the Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA), legislative work on it could be completed by year-end.

The development ministry is finalising work on provisions that would allow for shorter distances between new wind turbines and farm buildings or protected areas, which under the current distance rule need to be 10 times the tip height – which in practice means a distance of 1.5 to 2km, Poland’s deputy prime minister Jadwiga Emilewicz told a virtual conference last week.

A condition for more accommodating rules on distance, though, would be to take into account local spatial development plans.

Emilewicz also pointed to the willingness of Poland’s state-run power utility PGE to boost its renewable energy commitments, which could be a reason for the government’s change from its previous anti-onshore wind standpoint.

“So far the biggest role in increasing the share of [renewable energy] in the Polish electricity balance was played by private energy companies and companies-prosumers, who collectively built 81% of all renewable capacity installed between 2013 and 2019,” Emilewicz was quoted by PWEA as saying last week during wind farm inauguration by developer Wpd.

“Currently, public sector companies are becoming more eager to invest in renewables and fight for the lead in this market. According to its new strategy, PGE Group intends to maintain the leading position in the RES segment and to generate approx. 25% of Poland’s renewable electricity production by 2030.”

The total capacity of halted projects in various stages of development in Poland amounts to 4.1GW, including 3.4GW in projects that have a signed connection agreement. PWEA said the country has an onshore wind potential of some 22-24GW, almost four times the 6.2GW currently in operation.

Next to the enormous potential for wind on land, pressure from the EU to phase out coal (which currently accounts for more than 70% of Polish electricity), and the hunger for green power by large state-owned firms, mid-term voter strategy aspects may also play a role for Warsaw’s gradual warming up to onshore wind.

The government led by the right-wing populist Law and Justice Party (PiS) had introduced the wind distance rule also to cater to wind protesters in coal and rural constituencies that are important for its voter support. But after winning elections for municipalities, parliament and president in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively, the PiS doesn’t need to face another important vote for several years.

Until then, renewables developers hope the government – together with the wind industry – can convince rural constituencies more of the beneficial aspects of wind farms, and offer coal regions substantial support to ease possible job losses in coal in the wake of the energy transition.

“With a conservative assumption of the potential of non-developed projects at the level of 3.4GW, we estimate that budgets of local governments lose about PLN120m ($31.8m) in property tax every year. In the 25-year operational lifetime of wind farms this would amount to almost PLN3bn,” PWEA president Janusz Gajowiecki said.

“Additionally over PLN2bn in the entire lifetime of these installations would be brought in corporate and personal income taxes.”

The government in 2018 and 2019 had carried out tenders that included a combined 3.2GW in onshore wind projects in an advanced stage of development, which fetched record-low prices for winning bids, a fact that contradicted earlier claims that renewables are too expensive for Eastern Europe.

Another 1.2GW of advanced projects have valid building permits, and could be auctioned off soon. But due to the distance rule, there are no fresh projects in development, which could lead to an investment and construction lull for onshore wind in Poland soon.

Emilewicz said the minimum distance to the nearest building from future wind farms despite planned exceptions to the distance rule should not be less than 500 metres.

The distance rule does not apply to offshore wind.