Wood Mackenzie boosted its forecast for the wind market in Eastern Europe and Russia, as it downgraded estimates for Germany and Western Europe, the analyst's Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q3 2019 shows.

An auction-driven awakening in Poland and a growing confidence in developers' ability to comply with local content requirements in Russia led to a 17% wind capacity increase quarter-on-quarter (or 3.13GW) in Eastern Europe and Russia to 21.5GW in the ten years through 2028.

WoodMac is also upgrading its ten-year outlook for Northern Europe by 3%, but downgrading it by 3% for the important Western Europe sub-region.

“The outlook for Germany has been downgraded by 2.3GW as the last two onshore wind tender rounds, held in August and September of this year, went heavily undersubscribed,” Wood Mackenzie research director Luke Lewandowski said.

“This exacerbated the crisis faced by the country’s onshore wind sector, which continues to encounter public opposition and court appeals.”

Including the downgrades, the 10-year outlook for Germany now stands at 33.4GW, and at 77GW for Western Europe.

For Europe as a whole, the analyst upgrades its outlook by 3.1GW to 202GW in the ten years through 2028.

Wood Mackenzie's outlook for the Asia-Pacific region - excluding China - is worse, the analyst cuts its 10-year outlook by 2.8%, triggered by a 3.2GW downgrade in India due to relentless market disorder.

“A carefully-watched legal dispute in India’s Andhra Pradesh, a key wind power state, could eventually spoil opportunity in other states and disrupt the outlook. However, there will be no significant change to the rest of Asia Pacific QoQ other than the financial close of a project in New Zealand. This will boost an otherwise dormant market," Lewandowski reckoned.

“China’s domestic supply chain will limit developer ambitions to capitalise on the expiring feed-in-tariff (FIT), therefore resulting in no change to the outlook in the country QoQ.”

The brightest outlook is for the Americas.

"With a 5%-upgrade in the US over the outlook period, slow-moving utility interest will mobilise to capture expiring wind power Production Tax Credits (PTCs). Deliverability concerns continue to mount as the backlog of contracted and high-probability capacity swells beyond 23GW for 2020, causing some spill over of 'excusable disruption' capacity into 2021."

With less than a 0.3% decrease quarter on quarter in Latin America, near-term upgrades have given way to medium-term market challenges in key markets.

First half 2019 wind turbine installation activity puts Mexico and Argentina on track for a record annual capacity this year, the analyst expects. Strong turbine order intake in Brazil during the first half is seen preventing a downturn in 2020.

UPDATE adds more detail