The world is likely to have seen ‘peak emissions’ from power generation in 2022, with wind and solar-led electrification set to squeeze down fossil-fired electricity from now on, research group Ember said.
The energy think-tank claimed “a new era of falling power sector emissions is very close” as it said clean generation expansion is set to outstrip electricity demand growth in 2023. “This would be the first year for this to happen outside of a recession.”
Ember said in its latest Global Electricity Review: “With average growth in electricity demand and clean power, we forecast that 2023 will see a small fall in fossil generation (-47 TWh, -0.3%), with bigger falls in subsequent years as wind and solar grow further. That would mean 2022 hit ‘peak’ emissions.”
According to Ember, “falling fossil generation means not only that the coal power phasedown will happen, but also that – for the first time – a gas power phasedown is now within reach. However, just how quickly power sector emissions will fall is not yet set.”
Power generation is the single biggest source of climate-harming emissions globally.
While the “electricity superpowers” of wind and solar are leading the charge from coal, oil and gas generation, Ember said there needs to be “urgent work” in areas such as grid integration and permitting for new projects to meet ballooning demand for electricity from new sources such as mobility, heat pumps and hydrogen electrolysers.
Ember senior electricity analyst Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka said: “In this decisive decade for the climate, it is the beginning of the end of the fossil age. We are entering the clean power era. The stage is set for wind and solar to achieve a meteoric rise to the top.
“Change is coming fast. However, it all depends on the actions taken now by governments, businesses and citizens to put the world on a pathway to clean power by 2040.”
Ember pinpointed 2022 as a turning point for the global power sector, with growth in wind and solar alone meeting 80% of global power demand expansion and accounting for a record 12% of all generation.
Last year was also the “cleanest ever” for power emissions at 436 gCO2/kWh, the think-tank added.
Ember’s latest report chimes with studies from the likes of the International Energy Agency (IEA)highlighting the impact on power sector emissions of steep renewables growth.
However, the IEA, the UN and other experts have warned that even faster progress is needed to hit climate change goals, while the wind industry has highlighted the danger of a supply chain crunch that could stall the energy transition.
