Without new policy measures the US is only on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 24-35% from 2005 levels by 2030, far below its 50-52% Paris Agreement climate pledge, according to a new analysis by independent researcher Rhodium Group.

While the new estimate represents a “rosier outlook” for emissions reductions compared to the 17-30% path in the 2021 analysis released a year ago, this change is mainly “attributable to slower macroeconomic growth projections and higher fossil fuel prices—not large policy changes,” said Rhodium analysts who wrote the report, Taking Stock 2022: US Greenhouse Gas emissions Outlook in an Uncertain World.

The report investigates trends in the key drivers of US GHG emissions including changes in energy markets, expectations for the economy, policy developments, and technology cost and performance advancements. It then estimates a range of emissions outcomes based on these trends.

“Global and US energy markets and the economy look very different now than they did a year ago, amid the war in Ukraine and high inflationary pressures from Covid-recovery turmoil,” they said, adding: “Uncertainty reigns on the US policy front as well.”

Congress did pass the $1trn Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the nation’s largest clean energy investment to date, and new GHG emissions and fuel economy standards for light-duty vehicles took effect on the federal level. Some states also raised their climate mandates and targets.

President Job Biden’s signature Build Back Better bill, however, collapsed in spectacular fashion last December in the Senate, leaving the fate of about $300bn in multi-year clean energy-related tax credits uncertain.

Two weeks ago, the US Supreme Court curtailed EPA’s powers to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, dealing another high-profile setback to Biden’s ambitious climate agenda.

“There has been some policy movement in the past year, although not close to the level of action required to meet the US’s 2030 climate target, and the recent Supreme Court ruling in West Virginia v. EPA has called EPA’s regulatory pathways into question,” they said.

November mid-term elections, not mentioned in the report, are adding uncertainty over the future pace of emissions reduction. If present polling is accurate, Biden’s Democrats will lose control of one or both houses of Congress.

Should that occur, Republicans will likely hold firm in their insistence that the US pursue an all-of-the-above energy policy, as opposed to Biden who wants to eliminate fossil fuels and has been lukewarm on nuclear, which is opposed by many environmental groups that are a political force in his party.

Looking ahead, Rhodium analysts expect that US power sector emissions will continue to generally decline. By 2035, they will be 42% lower in the report’s central emissions scenario than they are today, driven by less coal use and growth in renewables. Still, the sector will not be carbon-free to achieve Biden’s goal

Transportation emissions will also continue downward as electric vehicle sales ramp and fuel economy improvements. Industry will become the largest-emitting sector – it is now second after transportation – absent meaningful policies to curtail emissions growth, according to the report.