The US in 2020 will install 19GW of wind power capacity, shattering the national record for a calendar year set in 2012 by about 6GW, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast in the January edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

EIA, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, expects US wind capacity will increase from 106GW at the end of 2019 to 125GW within 12 months, then rise again by 5GW to 130GW at the end of 2021.

In 2019, developers rushed to bring projects into commercial operation to qualify them for the federal production tax credit at full value, which they will continue to do at unprecedented scale this year.

EIA’s 2020 estimate is more bullish than those by private consultancies. Wood Mackenzie, for example, is forecasting 15.2GW.

Still, the industry's rapid expansion is occurring despite President Donald Trump's public criticism of wind turbines as visually ugly machines that cause cancer and are a leading killer of birds.

Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette, who took office recently, has cited renewable generation growth as evidence that the "Trump Administration has created an environment for growth and prosperity in American energy."

According to the industry trade body the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), developers installed 3.7GW of wind capacity through three quarters in 2019. It has not released data for the fourth quarter, traditionally the busiest period for the industry, with 5-6GW of new capacity on the cards.

Last 30 September, the US wind project pipeline was a record 46.5GW – with 22.6GW under construction and the balance in advanced development, according to AWEA.

EIA forecast that renewables will increase their 17% share of the US electricity mix in 2019 to 22% in 2021 driven also by solar generating capacity additions.

The nation will add 13GW of utility-scale solar PV capacity this year and again in 2021, and a further 11GW of small-scale PV capacity over the next 24 months, mostly in the residential sector.

Helping solar growth are ongoing declines in tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on PV modules imported into the US. They started at 30% in January 2018 and are now 20% and are expected to decline to 15% in 2021 and expire thereafter.

EIA anticipates natural gas will remain steady at 37% of the national electricity mix through 2021, while nuclear will slightly less than the 20% in 2019.

Coal will continue to lose share of electricity generation decreasing from 24% in 2019 to 21% in both this year and in 2021. About 15.1GW of coal-fired generating capacity was retired in 2019 and roughly 39GW since Trump took office in January 2017, despite his administration’s efforts to support the sector by easing federal environmental regulations and continuing subsidy support.

Coal has struggled to compete against cheaper natural gas and renewables, while growing public and shareholder concern about climate change has added impetus for utilities to shutter older plants.

EIA forecast that US energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 2% in 2020 and by 1.5% in 2021, continuing last decade’s trend as utilities embrace cleaner alternatives to coal.

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US to shatter national wind capacity record with 19GW in 2020: EIA