Floating wind power projects totalling more than 26GW are on track to be turning by 2035, according to latest figures from Quest FWE, with the fleet expected to grow “exponentially” as the first wave of utility-scale developments now taking shape internationally are boosted by transitioning oil companies and ever-improving economics.

This market, says the Houston-based researcher – which only a decade ago was represented by a single unit off Norway and currently has under 100MW installed – is about to see “accelerated commercialisation” sparked by a number of supersize projects each costing $880m-$2bn that are now formally under development globally.

“Over the long-term, floating wind is projected to become a critical component of the energy mix. The pace and rhythm of this nascent market is profound, with upward projections of potentially 180GW [or more] of installed capacity by 2050, comprising nearly 13,000 floating turbine units,” said Quest president Paul Hillegeist.

Europe, the early “testbed” for the sector as the site of first floating prototypes and arrays, is now exporting the technology to Asia and the US, he noted, with expectations flagship developments will be seen in these so-called ‘emerging’ markets “well before 2025”.

This in turn – given the scale of the projects and “amble financial backing” involved will continue to “drive efficiencies and lead to significantly reduced development costs”.

“Floating wind is a global opportunity ramping-up for commercialisation across 6-10 distinct markets and [we] fully expects floating to be the largest growth component [of the worldwide energy transition] over the long-term, possibly outpacing bottom-fixed into the future,” said Hillegeist.

Quest foresees almost $100bn in capital flowing into floating projects by the end of the decade, propelled by the pick-up of contract awards totalling some $32bn during 2023-24.

According to the researcher’s database, the industry has near-to-medium-term floating wind projects accounting for 1,000 units, with some 750 expected to be commissioned between 2025-26, led by a $25bn-plus capital spend in Asia Pacific. Northern Europe is forecast to invest $11.3bn in projects in this time-frame, while the US Pacific will see spending of $6.2bn, Southern Europe $2.4bn and the US Atlantic $300m.

Quest spotlighted France, which is underwriting 750MW of floating via a dedicated first tender set for 2021-22, and Norway, where a 4.5GW auction round is about to be started, as sector markets to watch in 2021.

“The floating wind industry was – only a few years ago – an 'inner circle' that met more naysayers than believers,” noted Hillegeist. “This industry has come a very long way in delivering new floater designs, scaled demonstrators, pre-commercial projects – and new players.”

Quest underscored the impact of international carbon-neutrality targets and the arrival of oil majors such as Shell and Total in the sector would have in spurring floating wind forward.

“Our accelerated energy transition is being led from more aggressive stated net-zero carbon goals coupled with more influential economic and political factors along with shifts in societal preferences,” he said. “This is matched by a corresponding increase in the role of renewable energy as the world increasingly electrifies.

“ESG (environmental, social and governance) are drivers influencing our energy transition. In line with that, 2020 has been the year of aggressive commitments to net-zero by 2050 for a large swath of companies.

“This group has been led by Europe’s largest integrated oil companies – Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Equinor. They remain at the forefront of their peers, and they are transparent about transitioning to clean-energy in the future,” said Hillegeist.

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Floating wind set for 'exponential' growth on cued-up $100bn global spending surge