Plans announced this week by the European Commission to quadruple the EU’s green hydrogen supply by 2030 — partly to reduce demand for Russian gas — push worldwide demand for electrolysers to more than 400GW, but global manufacturing supply would only reach 70GW by then, according to modelling by US investment bank Jefferies.

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In a customer note released today (Thursday), equity analyst Will Kirkness writes that demand for green hydrogen (to replace highly polluting grey H2) from oil refining and ammonia and methanol production adds up to 180GW of potential demand, with steel adding another 100GW, and the EC’s new RePowerEU plans adding another 120GW [on top of the 40GW previously envisaged under the EU’s Fit for 55 package].

“Before we even include known projects in the Middle East, Australia and Scandinavia in ammonia, fuel and Power-to-X, we reach potential demand of 400GW of electrolysis by 2030… our model only indicates 70GW of supply by 2030.”

Recharge believes that announced green hydrogen projects in the Middle East and Australia alone add up to 80-100GW by the end of this decade.

REPowerEU’s plans for 20 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030 would require 120-200GW of electrolysers alone, the note adds.

“We estimate 15mt [million tonnes] would require another 90-150GW of electrolysis in addition to the 30-50GW already required for the 5mt in Fit for 55,” Kirkness writes.

The Jefferies note also points out that according to the International Energy Agency, the world would need 850GW of electrolysers by 2030 to be on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.