Relying on green hydrogen rather than heat pumps for Europe’s heating would double energy bills, cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, decrease GDP by 1%, increase air pollution leading to premature deaths and put the EU’s 2030 climate targets out of reach, according to a new study.
Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps, combined with home renovations to increase energy efficiency, would be the cheapest route to decarbonise residential heating, according to the 222-page report, Modelling the socioeconomic impacts of zero carbon housing in Europe, by UK-based analyst Cambridge Econometrics — in association with the European Climate Foundation and the European Alliance to Save Energy.
Even a mix of heat pumps and green hydrogen boilers would be worse for consumers’ pockets and the planet than using only heat pumps, it found.
“The larger the uptake of heat pumps, the greater the socio-economic benefits,” says an executive summary written by the European Climate Foundation, a Brussels-based philanthropic initiative.
“Heat pumps are a highly efficient heating technology, which reduces the energy bills of households and improves Europe’s energy independence,” it adds. “A large deployment of heat pumps (both in individual heating systems and in district heating networks) and a high renovation rate can halve households’ energy bills in 2050.
“Hydrogen boilers lead to higher energy bills as they are much less energy efficient than heat pumps, requiring up to six times more renewable electricity.
“In addition… hydrogen boilers would have a negative impact on people’s health because they release NOx emissions, significantly contributing to air pollution.”
The summary explains that the uptake of heat pumps and energy renovations, and the subsequent monetary savings would “unlock spending on other goods and services produced in Europe, leading to more economic output and creating 1.2 million net additional jobs by 2050”.
“The climate benefits are large too. As heat pumps are already available today, their high uptake allows the EU to meet its 2030 climate goals. This would not be feasible if green hydrogen is used for residential heating, as production and commercialisation are still one decade away.”
It adds: “A scenario in which heat pumps become the dominant heating technology would cut NOx emissions from around 330,000 tonnes per year now to less than 27,000 tonnes by 2050, or a more than tenfold decrease. This will help cut air pollution from NOx, which currently causes 40,400 premature deaths in the EU. On the contrary, using green hydrogen for heating will increase air pollution from NOx compared to electrification, since hydrogen boilers emit NOx, while heat pumps do not.”
And the report points out that while heat pumps are expensive today, their total cost of ownership “is likely to converge towards that of condensing gas boilers by 2028”.
“Introducing a carbon price for heating fuels will lead to heat pumps becoming cost competitive immediately.”
At least ten independent studies have reached similar conclusions to this report, yet some gas distributors — particularly in the UK — as well as Eurogas and the Hydrogen Council are still pushing the narrative that we will all be heating our homes with clean hydrogen boilers supplied through today’s national and regional natural-gas networks.
Only last week, the trade body Energy and Utilities Alliance called upon the UK government to speed up the conversion of gas networks to hydrogen — as a way of reducing reliance on Russian fossil fuels.
“We can become more energy independent and interdependent with green hydrogen, so the sooner we make the announcement to convert our gas networks, the better off we will be and the safer our world will be too,” said chief executive Mike Foster.
While Foster stated that wind and solar would provide our green hydrogen, he omitted the fact that five to six times as many wind turbines and solar panels would be required if our homes were heated by renewable H2, rather than heat pumps.
