Europe faces a looming “critical shortfall” of key energy transition materials that could threaten the EU’s green plans, said a major metals industry report that echoes warnings from the renewables sector.
Soaring need for materials such as copper, lithium and cobalt for use in a wide range of clean energy generation and storage technology applications (see panel) threatens to leave the continent scrabbling to meet demand by tapping unreliable or carbon-intensive supply sources, said a study by Belgium’s KU Leuven university commissioned by metals producers’ body Eurometaux.
While in the longer-term recycling could meet up to 75% of Europe’s needs, the next 15 years will see “critical shortfalls without more mined and refined metals supplying the start of its clean energy system”, said the report’s authors.
The report for Eurometaux – which represents major industry players such as Glencore, RioTinto, Alco and Anglo American – warns that Europe faces a supply crunch for five key materials – lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths and copper – as soon as 2030, with demand peaking in 2040 after which recycling will start to ease the situation.
Before that Europe faces tough choices over how to meet its early demand boom. It could seek to encourage more mining and refining on European territory, a course beset with planning and environmental issues, and overshadowed by the fact that soaring energy costs have actually forced domestic refining capacity to close.
Further afield, Eurometaux questions why Europe has not followed China’s lead and invest in mines outside its territory to ensure high environmental standards are met.
Otherwise, Europe risks relying on “coal-powered Chinese and Indonesian metal production [that] will dominate global refining capacity growth for battery metals and rare earths”.
Liesbet Gregoir, lead author of the study at KU Leuven, said: “Europe needs to decide urgently how it will bridge its looming supply gap for primary metals. Without a decisive strategy, it risks new dependencies on unsustainable suppliers.”
The metals industry study follows an International Energy Agency report last year highlighting a a “looming mismatch” in supply and demand of key energy transition materials.
Renewables sector worried
The Eurometaux report echoes strong warnings from the renewables industry at WindEurope’s recent conference in Bilbao, where Samuel Leupold, chair of Corio Generation, the newly formed specialist offshore wind unit of global finance giant Macquarie, said current concerns over imported hydrocarbons should sharpen governments’ focus on the need to secure access to the commodities that will underpin the next energy era.
“Renewables and wind energy must position itself much more as an instrument of geopolitics going forward in Europe,” said the Corio executive.
“The age of hydrocarbons will be followed by the age of energy transition materials.”
US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm has also that supply chains for key energy transition minerals and materials need to be scaled-up and secured as nations lay their plans for a future that is both green and less reliant on Russia.
4.5 million tonnes of aluminium (+33% on today’s use)
1.5 million tonnes of copper (+35%)
800,000 tonnes of lithium (+3,500%)
400,000 tonnes of nickel (+100%)
300,000 tonnes of zinc (+10-15%)
200,000 tonnes of silicon (+45%)
60,000 tonnes of cobalt (+330%)
3,000 tonnes of rare earths metals (+700-2,600%)
