China is making “staggering” progress in its net zero drive and will quintuple its renewables capacity by 2050, according to a new DNV report – although fossil fuels will “persist” in its energy mix.
China today emits a third of global energy-related CO2 emissions but by mid-century will have cut that to a fifth, according to the report on the country's energy transition.
“Intense policy focus and technological innovation are transforming China into a green energy powerhouse,” said Remi Eriksen, CEO of the Norwegian energy consultancy.
“There is much to admire about China’s energy transition. There are visible signs of a vast decarbonisation effort and clean technology development within renewable energy, storage, and transmission technologies.”
In absolute terms, by 2050, he said China’s emissions will reduce by a “staggering” 70%.
“However, there is potential for China to push further its transition to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels further and faster – and to bring China closer to net-zero emissions by 2050.”
China aims to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 and hit net zero by 2060.
The country currently finds itself in a transitional phase, said DNV, as it is “by far the largest consumer of coal globally at over 50% of worldwide consumption,” but also by far the leading installer of renewable capacity.
China reports having 1.45TW of renewables online by the end of last year and DNV predicts it will increase its green energy capacity five times over by 2050.
The “stability” of its government – led by President Xi Jinping, who has consolidated an iron grip on power since being elected president in 2012 – “arguably removes some uncertainty from a forecasting perspective,” said DNV.
This is as opposed to the US, for example, where the potential re-election of former president Donald Trump – recently reported to have said he “hates” wind power – could upend the pro-renewables approach taken by incumbent Joe Biden.
“Energy independence is a key motivation for Chinese energy policy,” said DNV. “But it will be only partly achieved.”
While green power is replacing coal, China will continue to rely on imports for oil and gas, it said, particularly in its petrochemicals and heavy transport sectors.
The growth of China’s wind sector shows “how a country can grow a new renewable energy industry at an astonishing rate in just over a decade,” said DNV.
China generated just 1% of its energy from wind in 2010, but this increased to 8% in 2022 – second only to coal and hydropower – and will hit 13% by 2030.
By mid-century China will “comfortably” be the world’s largest wind market, with solar and wind each contributing around 38% of its electricity production.
One challenge for its wind rollout is that most wind power is generated in China’s sparsely populated north, while most energy is consumed in its east, requiring long-distance power transfer, which causes inefficiencies.
But DNV said that this and other challenges “are not insurmountable and should not be regarded as showstoppers for wind.”
In absolute terms, DNV said China will cut its emissions by 70% by mid-century, “following a path close to meeting its target of carbon neutrality by 2060.”
