The global production of electrolysers — the machines that split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen using an electric current — will grow exponentially over the next nine years, according to a new report by analyst Guidehouse Insights.
The annual manufacturing capacity will grow from about 1.3GW at the end of this year to 104.6GW by 2031 — an increase of almost 8,000%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62.6%, the US-based company says in its study, Market Data: Electrolyzers.
While the 104.6GW figure is far higher than the 47GW of electrolysers expected to be manufactured annually (by 2030) by US investment bank Jefferies, it is still well below the 180GW foreseen to be in use by the end of the decade under the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Announced Pledges Scenario — and even further behind the 850GW the IEA says is needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Nevertheless, it still represents massive growth for an industry that has only installed about 200MW of electrolysers to date, according to Aurora Energy Research.
“The market for electrolyzers is expected to experience tremendous growth through the forecast period,” the Guidehouse report says. “This growth is expected to be driven by factors such as decreasing capital costs, declining feedstock costs, and an overall push for decarbonization. Additionally, policies, such as subsidies, limits on fossil fuels, and carbon taxes, can drive the market even further.”
It adds that it expects the electrolyser manufacturing market to be led by Europe, followed by Asia Pacific, then North America, Latin America and the Middle East & Africa.
At least 14 gigawatt-scale electrolyser factories have been announced to date — adding up to 26GW — by the following manufacturers:
- Thyssenkrupp (5GW, Germany)
- ITM Power (5GW, UK)
- Plug Power (1GW in US; 1GW in South Korea; 2GW in Australia, with partner Fortescue Future Industries)
- John Cockerill (1GW in France; 2GW in India, in conjunction with Greenko)
- Siemens Energy (1GW in Germany, but eventually ‘multi-gigawatt’)
- Cummins (1GW in Spain, with Iberdrola; and 1GW in China, with Sinopec)
- Nel (2GW, Norway)
- Ohmium (India, 2GW)
- McPhy (France, 1GW)
- Sunfire (Germany, 1GW)
Guidehouse’s full report is available here.