France and Spain are among a host of EU states whose wind energy targets fall short of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, according to a new report from environmental charity WWF.
Those countries along with Greece and Luxembourg are only aiming to reach 70-90% of the wind energy needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario agreed by EU authorities.
A host of primarily Central and Eastern European states – including Poland, Romania and Bulgaria – are even further behind, aiming to have less than 70% of what is needed.
States that are roughly on track with their wind ambitions are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden.
The Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) Scenarios for Energy Infrastructure were developed by the Climate Action Network and the European Environmental Bureau to develop a future energy scenario for Europe that is compatible with the Paris Agreement.
Its key objectives are reaching at least 65% greenhouse gas emissions reductions in Europe by 2030, and 100% renewable energy supply along with net zero emissions by 2040.
According to PAC scenario modelling, EU states will need 465GW of installed wind capacity by 2030 to reach that year’s target. In 2022, the WWF report said that EU countries met 16% of their electricity demand through 204GW of installed wind capacity, 16GW offshore and 188GW onshore.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen last month pledged more support for Europe’s ailing wind power industry, which has been buffeted by supply chain pressures and inflation.
WWF did find that, “on paper,” considering technological capabilities of new wind turbines and recent energy system modelling, member states’ projections are collectively “broadly in line” with an EU target agreed earlier this year of meeting 42.5% of its energy needs through renewables by 2030.
However, the report found that yearly deployment is currently “far too low,” with only 16GW of wind installed last year. It said this needs to “more than double” by 2030 to deliver the 42.5% target.
Arnaud Van Dooren, a climate and energy policy officer at WWF, said that the question is whether the states will be able to meet “and indeed exceed” that target, as he said it “falls well short of what’s needed to limit climate heating to 1.5°C.”
WWF proposes that EU states should meet 50% of their energy needs through renewables by 2030 and 100% by 2040.
To achieve the PAC goals, WWF said that member states need to overcome “significant challenges” when it comes to winning public support for expanding grid infrastructure and speeding up permitting processes – “in particular by increasing administrative capacity in competent authorities.”
Van Dooren warned however that the EU’s “current trend to accelerate permitting processes by exempting renewable projects or clean tech from environmental rules is the wrong way to go.”
