China’s renewables developers will this year continue to benefit from robust annual government targets, said analyst IHS.
IHS said the National Energy Administration's
(NEA's) recently-published 2014 growth targets – including 18GW for wind and 10GW for PV,
60% of that distributed – “indicate that the government is pursuing its
overriding policy priorities relatively aggressively, and in some cases meeting
its original targets early”.
According to IHS analyst
Olivia Boyd, although the targets “do not reflect any significant deviations
from past policy announcements” some of the goals show an “intensification” of
Boyd said: “The NEA's 2014
renewable energy targets are particularly notable, in part because they reflect
the fact that China has frequently built renewable energy capacity to levels in
excess of original targets.
The 18GW wind target is “relatively
ambitious”. Boyd said: “The government has not set a target for grid-connected
wind capacity, although the Chinese wind market is beginning to recover from
its lowest point in 2012, when a large share of already constructed wind farms
were unable to produce electricity due to delays in grid connection.”
China added about 16.1GW
of wind in 2013, according to provisional figures cited by the Global Wind
Energy Council this week.
The IHS analyst concluded:
“Wind and PV solar developers stand to benefit from strong government targets
in 2014, although the issue of grid connection bottlenecks will remain a risk
affecting profitability in the sector.”
Boyd said the bigger
picture will see the Chinese government continue its efforts to drive down the share
of coal in the country’s energy mix – even though the volume of coal used
remains high – partly because of a desire to reduce pollution.
Beijing is also seeking to
boost gas production – including by exploitation of shale gas. It has set a
gas target 12% ahead of 2013’s level, Boyd said.