China to smash wind target – Insight

China is likely to smash its target of 150GW of installed wind capacity by 2017 – but may find it ambitious solar goals more of a challenge, according to two new research notes from the Recharge Insight analysis service.

Wind and solar are both central to the Chinese government's plans to clean up its polluted urban air, meet growing power need and reduce dependence on imports, explains Recharge Insight.

That led planners at China's National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) to aim for 150GW of wind and 70GW of solar by 2017 under its latest set of mid-term targets.

The wind target looks "relatively undemanding and will comfortably be overshot", according to Recharge Insight, which looks at risk factors such as grid-connection shortfalls, feed-in tariffs and subsidy payment delays before offering its own forecast for 2017.

It noted that China already had 91GW of wind power installed by the end of last year, with 75.5GW grid-connected.

However, the solar ambition "looks rather demanding" from the end-2013 installed base of 18.6GW. While PV installations will boom, Recharge Insight identifies a number of finance- and policy-related issues that could still leave the country short of its 2017 goal.

For example, the note's authors explain why the current tariff structure for distributed PV "seems unworkable".

Recharge Insight subscribers can access the full research here. A free trial is also available.

Recharge Insight is a premium subscription service aimed at providing renewables thought leaders and decision-makers with best-in-class analysis of key issues facing the industry. For more information on Recharge Insight, contact Ksenia Burkova at ksenia.burkova@rechargenews.com

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