The forecast growth in solar PV worldwide has been “grossly underestimated” in models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and could be three times higher than previously assumed, according to Germany’s Mercator Research Institute.

The results of a Mercator study, published in the journal Nature Energy, shows that the share of solar in the overall energy mix will likely range between 30% and 50% worldwide by 2050, and not the current estimate of 5% to 17% – even if global electricity demand continues to rise.