China growth may help smooth PV's stormy waters, analysts say

Workers work at Asia's first solar thermal tower power station under construction in Yanqing in Beijing, China on Wednesday, June 30, 2010. With an investment of 120 million yuan, the solar thermal tower power plant will achieve grid at the end of this year and has an annual capacity of 2.7 million kwh of electricity, equivalent to eliminating 2,300 tons of carbon dioxide emissions from conventional power plants.(Photo By Liang Baohai/Color China Photo/AP Images)

Rapid growth in China may help compensate for negatives elsewhere

The waters ahead still look stormy for the crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV manufacturing chain. But with surging Chinese demand set to offset weakness in other markets, the industry is the closest it has been in years to a supply-demand equilibrium, according to experts.

After more than two years of gross overcapacity across the c-Si sector, leading to bankruptcies and frozen expansion programmes, the supply of modules will outstrip demand by only 8% in the second half of 2012, predicts market researcher Solarbuzz.

That forecast is based on the belief that the annual global PV market will grow to 30GW from about 27.6GW in 2011 – an underwhelming performance by the recent standards of the industry, but better than observers predicted only a few months ago.

Demand last year was driven by Europe, where PV…

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