Nordex chief executive Jürgen Zeschky expects the US wind market to continue its support-scheme-triggered boom-and-bust cycles and predicts Germany will revert to a more "normal" 1.5GW-1.8GW in 2015 after its own mini-boom.
“I believe in 2014, we will see the market in the US in terms of installation will be close to capacity. So you’ll see a very boom effect again in the US, but that’s driven by the PTC [production tax credit] extension and the safe harbour regulation that was decided,” Zeschky said at a press conference.
“If past behaviour is a good guide for the future, then I would continue to expect this boom and bust behaviour in the US, meaning a huge market in one year and a tanking market the next.”
As part of a restructuring, Nordex decided to close its US manufacturing facilities and now targets only a small market share of 100MW a year there, together with another 100MW in the rest of the Americas.
“If we can reach more ambitious targets in the market, that’s fine. But we adjusted our structure to a relatively low volume in the Americas in order to be profitable,” Zeschky said.
Nordex is also cautious about its German home market.
The country currently is undergoing a temporary mini-boom, Zeschky said.
“We expect orders for the whole market of around 3.2GW this year,” Zeschky said.
But “we expect it to go to a level of 1.5GW to 1.8GW in 2015”, Zeschky added, which he thinks is reverting “back to normal” as Germany used to be a 2GW a year market.
The company last year had only a 4% market share in Germany, but its order intake is surging rapidly, raising hopes for a double-digit market penetration. In the US, Nordex last year held 2% of the market.