The FIT will likely fall between 1.09 yuan and 1.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour of electricity produced at large-scale photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and will be in place by the end of the year, predicts Suntech chairman Zhengrong Shi.

Shi’s prognosis comes in the wake of an 81% decline in Suntech’s quarterly earnings. Suntech’s net profit of $10m in the second quarter compares to the $52.3m it reported in the same period last year. Year-on-year revenues for the company slid 33% to $320.9m.

Comparing the likely shape of the FIT to China’s existing roof-top subsidy and ‘Golden Sun’ programme, which focuses on remote off-grid installations, Shi says: “This new type of solar policy will drive much faster growth in the Chinese solar market.”

Along with a bevy of competitors, Suntech, the world’s largest maker of crystalline solar modules, is scrambling to put the right pieces in place to take advantage of the FIT if and when it comes. Suntech has put together a staff of 200 engineers in 10 Chinese cities devoted solely to designing and developing large-scale PV projects – one of the largest such teams operating in China.

Suntech recently unveiled agreements with two state-run utilities to develop 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of solar projects over the next few years, with Suntech responsible for designing the arrays and supplying the kit.

Chief executive Shi says that even China’s existing solar subsidies – the rooftop scheme, the Golden Sun programme, and another announced earlier this year that will see a suite of large-scale arrays erected in Jiangsu province – are causing a buzz within the Chinese solar industry.

“While we’re still awaiting clarification on some of the policy details, these programmes are generating a significant amount of interest in the domestic Chinese solar market, and have the potential to drive the market up by at least 100 megawatts (MW) to 200MW per year,” he says.

Shi admits that Suntech’s full-year shipments will likely come in around 600MW – at the low end of his last guidance, and significantly below the 800MW the company predicted at the beginning of the year. Suntech intends to freeze its production capacity at 1GW until there is a clear rebound in demand.