Absent binding international limits on greenhouse gasses, the increased energy consumption will coincide with a 39% rise in carbon dioxide emissions, according to the 2009 International Energy Outlook released on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The fastest growth in energy consumption is expected among developing countries, which will boost energy consumption 73%, compared to 15% for developed nations, the report predicts.

Net electricity consumption is seen rising 77% through 2030, with renewable energy the fastest-growing source of generation. Renewable electricity generation is expected to grow 2.9% annually through 2030, increasing its total share of global electricity from 19% in 2006 to 21% in 2030.

Of new renewable generating capacity, 54% is expected to come from hydro and 33% from wind. Developing economies will use more hydro, as their resources haven’t been developed to the degree of those in the developed world, the report states.

The EIA has a somewhat dismal outlook for other generating sources:

“Except for [hydro and wind], most renewable energy technologies are not economically competitive with fossil fuels over the projection period, outside a limited number of niche markets. Solar power, for instance, typically is uneconomical but can be economical where electricity prices are high and government incentives are available. In fact, government incentives or policies typically provide the primary support for construction of any renewable generation facilities.”

Fossil fuels are predicted to remain the dominant energy source, with liquid fuels and other petroleum accounting for the majority within the category. But the EIA expects rising oil prices to decrease the use of liquid fuels modestly from 36% in 2006 to 32% in 2030. Its long-term projection for the price of light sweet crude oil in the US (in real 2007 dollars) is $61 per barrel in 2009, rising to $110 per barrel in 2015 and $130 per barrel in 2030.

The 2030 level is 80% higher than what EIA predicted last year. Despite that, the agency only sees a 9% drop in world transportation sector consumption of liquid fuel, relative to last year’s outlook, “reflecting the expectation that, absent significant technological advances, liquids will continue to be the primary energy source in the world’s transportation sector".

To accommodate that consumption, unconventional liquid fuels will play a greater role in the energy supply. By 2030, production of oil sands, extra-heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids is predicted to increase to 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd), or 13% of total world liquids supply.

Biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, will contribute 5.9bpd in 2030, with strong consumption growth expected from existing US legislative mandates.

Coal will remain a substantial part of the mix, particularly in Asia.

“In fact, much of the region’s increase in energy demand is expected to be met by coal, particularly in the electric power and industrial sectors. For example, installed coal-fired generating capacity in China is projected to nearly triple from 2006 to 2030, and coal use in China’s industrial sector grows by nearly 60%,” the EIA states.

Access the full report at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html